The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecasted that American holiday retail sales will top US$1 trillion for the first time in 2025, underscoring the resilience of US consumers despite persistent inflation, tariffs, and an ongoing government shutdown.
According to the NRF’s annual outlook, retail sales for November and December are expected to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent compared with 2024, bringing total spending to between US$1.01 trillion and US$1.02 trillion. That compares with a 4.3 percent rise last year, when sales reached US$976 billion.
NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said that while consumer confidence remains cautious, Americans continue to demonstrate economic strength. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season,” he said, noting that many shoppers are likely to cut back on nonessential items to prioritise gifts.
Retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers—well below the 442,000 recruited last year—amidst a slower labour market. However, analysts suggest some hiring was brought forward to accommodate early holiday promotions in October.
The ongoing federal government shutdown could pose a short-term drag on private spending, though the NRF expects most impacts to be temporary.
A separate NRF survey found that consumers plan to spend an average of US$890 per person on gifts, decorations and festive meals, the second-highest level in the survey’s 23-year history. The federation’s findings highlight continued consumer resilience in a challenging economic environment. （Photo courtesy: NRF）
24-11-2025
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